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Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

● quote 18s ago
Finance→Tech→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $139.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $173.9KEvent: Largest Company end of December 2026?
18.5¢
YES
81.5¢
NO
0.8¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution94Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$243 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 974 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$1.7K@ 15¢·Hauchn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$243

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $1.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.8¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Observed tape is 974 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Bigggggggg3 linked markets · $5.3K gross
apolo73 linked markets · $744 gross
0xb211…17fe2 linked markets · $229 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 79.6¢45d ago
15m STALLED -1.1pp1h STALLED -1.1pp6h STALLED -1.3pp24h STALLED +0.8pp
THESIS FLIPBUY NO@ 79.6¢45d ago
15m STALLED -1.1pp1h STALLED -1.1pp6h STALLED -1.3pp24h STALLED +0.8pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.2pp · near-book depth $247 → $293 · 43s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $239

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current18.5¢
VWAP 24h18.9¢▼ below by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d21.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$1.6K
15¢
← now
$480
10¢
$3.3K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$54.5K@ 77.8¢
Hauchn0xf0ca…66ed
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLYES$21.5K@ 22.2¢
Hauchn0xf0ca…66ed
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.