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Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

● quote 1665 min ago
Culture→FilmCloses: about 2 monthsLiquidity: $33.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $4.8KEvent: Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Indicative prices · 1665 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

88.5¢
YES
11.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$3 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 496 min agoofficial metadata 2218 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $485 net·3 wallets·$4.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$26.6K@ 90¢·GummiMummi

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$3

3 verified profitable wallets: YES · $485 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Executable quote is 1665 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 496 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-08 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
WordleAddict2 linked markets · $54.9K gross
0x955c…990f2 linked markets · $26.7K gross
flovertaco2 linked markets · $13.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 92.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -3.0pp24h INVALIDATED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $3

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current88.5¢
VWAP 24h89.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d88.69¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$45.9K
85¢
← now
$60.9K
80¢
$2.6K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$26.6K@ 90.26¢
GummiMummi0x0e8d…dfcc
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$10.2K@ 85.54¢
WordleAddict0xe25b…0f1b
🐋—5 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

GummiMummiYes$28.6K
BUY VWAP 90.31¢·2 fills
WordleAddictYes$10.2K
BUY VWAP 85.54¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.