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Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: 6 monthsLiquidity: $291.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $65.5KEvent: Next French Presidential Election

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

14.45¢
YES
85.55¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets53Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:82 trades$16.7K trackedsource coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.4K net·12 wallets·$9.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$88.9K@ 89¢·LlamaLoco0000

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: $3.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.0K
6h
+$324
tracked
$16.7K

12 verified profitable wallets: NO · $1.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-04-19 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/
Outcome meaning

•This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 28d ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 34d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
WarriorH3 linked markets · $9.4K gross
DFK2 linked markets · $8.4K gross
0x122c…fbed2 linked markets · $6.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 88.4¢7d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED -0.2pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 86.3¢15d ago
15m STALLED -1.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.4pp24h STALLED -0.3pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 89.1¢22d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY NO@ 89.5¢22d ago
15m STALLED -1.1pp1h STALLED -1.5pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED -0.5pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $3.0K
6hYES · $324
24hYES · $3.9K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current14.45¢
VWAP 24h13.98¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d13.03¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$12.8K
10¢
← now
$615.9K
5¢
$165.0K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$15.7K@ 88.3¢
lastminwin0xb5d1…6e35
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$11.2K@ 87.76¢
DiamondCursor0x0b0f…df88
🐋—13 days ago
BUYNO$12.1K@ 86.75¢
LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a
🐋—15 days ago
BUYYES$11.0K@ 14.41¢
seeps240x629f…7407
🐋—15 days ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 14.07¢
Thibaud0x970a…7016
🐋—21 days ago
BUYNO$40.0K@ 89.49¢
LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a
🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$88.9K@ 89.0¢
LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a
🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$10.8K@ 88.37¢
LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a
🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$58.3K@ 93.0¢
biboutou0xb014…c6f4
🐋—26 days ago
BUYNO$46.5K@ 92.94¢
biboutou0xb014…c6f4
🐋—26 days ago
BUYNO$14.5K@ 93.38¢0x3ed6…1ba2🐋—about 1 month ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.