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BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Yannick Hanfmann

Sports→TennisSettlement: Alex MichelsenLiquidity: $165.2KOfficial 24h Vol: —Event: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Yannick Hanfmann
100.0¢
Alex Michelsen payout
0.0¢
Yannick Hanfmann payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex Michelsen · $8.9K net·4 wallets·$11.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex Michelsen$16.5K@ 76¢·0x9bfe…4a26

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alex Michelsen. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-16 10:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Yannick Hanfmann in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 9, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Yannick Hanfmann. This market will resolve to 'Yannick Hanfmann' if Yannick Hanfmann advances against Alex Michelsen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 3d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 3d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
jtwyslljy2 linked markets · $8.2K gross
aloqqqqqa2 linked markets · $121 gross
0x43a1…c2aa2 linked markets · $10 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alex Michelsen3d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex Michelsen@ 78.0¢3d ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +14.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex Michelsen@ 76.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex Michelsen; negative values favor Yannick Hanfmann. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYannick Hanfmann · $7.2K
6hAlex Michelsen · $49.1K
24hAlex Michelsen · $48.5K

Alex Michelsen price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex Michelsen price. Yannick Hanfmann fills are converted to the complementary Alex Michelsen probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h84.95¢▲ above by 15.0pp
VWAP 7d84.95¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex Michelsen price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$22.8K
90¢
$21.1K
85¢
$5.1K
80¢
$0
75¢
$56.5K
70¢
$655
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlex Michelsen$16.5K@ 75.97¢0x9bfe…4a26🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

stuttigAlex Michelsen$19.7K
BUY VWAP 77.82¢·4 fills
0x9bfe…4a26Alex Michelsen$16.5K
BUY VWAP 75.97¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.