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Brisbane 3: August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $227.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $81.2KEvent: Brisbane 3: August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

69.5¢
August Holmgren
30.5¢
Christopher OConnell
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection73Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority89Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 93%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:76 trades$57.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 71%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:August Holmgren · $35.7K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$36.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAugust Holmgren$35.7K@ 61¢·Woaifacai

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW August Holmgren SETUP
What the tape says

August Holmgren pressure: $42.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$42.2K
6h
+$41.9K
tracked
$57.5K

9 verified profitable wallets: August Holmgren · $35.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 93% · priority 89

Since latest large flow: +8.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from August Holmgren or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-18 04:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between August Holmgren and Christopher O'Connell in the Brisbane 3, originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 11:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'August Holmgren' if August Holmgren advances against Christopher O'Connell. This market will resolve to 'Christopher O'Connell' if Christopher O'Connell advances against August Holmgren. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x0611…1a183 linked markets · $30 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY August Holmgren@ 62.0¢1m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Christopher OConnell DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $34.8K → $16.0K · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor August Holmgren; negative values favor Christopher OConnell. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAugust Holmgren · $42.2K
6hAugust Holmgren · $41.9K
24hAugust Holmgren · $41.8K

August Holmgren price VWAP

Volume-weighted August Holmgren price. Christopher OConnell fills are converted to the complementary August Holmgren probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current69.5¢
VWAP 24h57.81¢▲ above by 11.7pp
VWAP 7d57.81¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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August Holmgren price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$438
60¢
$37.6K
55¢
$4.9K
50¢
$12.1K
45¢
$12
40¢
$1.3K
35¢
$876
30¢
$364
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAugust Holmgren$35.7K@ 60.55¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—4 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Christopher O'Connell (-1.5) vs August Holmgren (+1.5)
50.0¢$363priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Holmgren vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 22.5
54.5¢$270priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Christopher O'Connell (-1.5) vs August Holmgren (+1.5)
0.5¢$177priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell
99.5¢$126priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Holmgren vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 23.5
50.0¢$74priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Holmgren vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 21.5
50.0¢$15priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
August Holmgren vs. Christopher O'Connell: Total Sets O/U 2.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WoaifacaiAugust Holmgren$35.7K
BUY VWAP 60.55¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.