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Set 1 Winner: August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $126Event: Brisbane 3: August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell

Polymarket indicative prices · 5 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
August Holmgren
0.05¢
Christopher O'Connell
—
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%
24h sample:1 trades$3 trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$3
6h
+$3
tracked
$3

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-18 04:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “August Holmgren” if August Holmgren wins the first set. It will resolve to “Christopher O'Connell” if Christopher O'Connell wins the first set.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between August Holmgren and Christopher O'Connell in the Brisbane 3, originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 11:30PM ET. This market will resolve to “August Holmgren” if August Holmgren wins the first set. It will resolve to “Christopher O'Connell” if Christopher O'Connell wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x0611…1a183 linked markets · $30 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor August Holmgren; negative values favor Christopher O'Connell. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAugust Holmgren · $3
6hAugust Holmgren · $3
24hAugust Holmgren · $3

August Holmgren price VWAP

Volume-weighted August Holmgren price. Christopher O'Connell fills are converted to the complementary August Holmgren probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h38.0¢▲ above by 62.0pp
VWAP 7d38.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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August Holmgren price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$3
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Brisbane 3: August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell
60.5¢$81.2Kpriority90Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Christopher O'Connell (-1.5) vs August Holmgren (+1.5)
50.0¢$363priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Holmgren vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 22.5
50.0¢$279priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Christopher O'Connell (-1.5) vs August Holmgren (+1.5)
0.45¢$177priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Holmgren vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 23.5
50.0¢$74priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Holmgren vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 21.5
50.0¢$15priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
August Holmgren vs. Christopher O'Connell: Total Sets O/U 2.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.