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BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo

Sports→TennisSettlement: Alejandro TabiloLiquidity: $435.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo
0.0¢
Lorenzo Sonego payout
100.0¢
Alejandro Tabilo payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:127 trades$207.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1361 min agoofficial metadata 1354 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alejandro Tabilo · $54.2K net·23 wallets(1🐋)·$197.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlejandro Tabilo$63.8K@ 66¢·0x2c33…0563

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alejandro Tabilo. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-18 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Alejandro Tabilo in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 11, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Sonego' if Lorenzo Sonego advances against Alejandro Tabilo. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Tabilo' if Alejandro Tabilo advances against Lorenzo Sonego. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 23h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 23h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9bfe…4a262 linked markets · $17.5K gross
extra183 linked markets · $11.8K gross
lzh12 linked markets · $10.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alejandro Tabilo@ 69.0¢1d ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -22.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Lorenzo Sonego@ 59.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -21.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Alejandro Tabilo@ 40.0¢1d ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +27.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Alejandro Tabilo UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $1.8K → $56.0K · 6s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Sonego; negative values favor Alejandro Tabilo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLorenzo Sonego · $96.1K
6hLorenzo Sonego · $84.2K
24hLorenzo Sonego · $77.8K

Lorenzo Sonego price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Sonego price. Alejandro Tabilo fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Sonego probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h36.73¢▼ below by 36.7pp
VWAP 7d36.73¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Sonego price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.6K
60¢
$67.6K
55¢
$131.6K
50¢
$19.0K
45¢
$24.7K
40¢
$36.7K
35¢
$38.7K
30¢
$117.0K
25¢
$21.2K
20¢
$7.0K
15¢
$2.6K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$120.2K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlejandro Tabilo$24.2K@ 99.9¢
MultiQuant24hAgent0xbcdc…e5b1
🐋—about 23 hours ago
SELLAlejandro Tabilo$11.6K@ 99.9¢0x9bfe…4a26🐋—about 23 hours ago
SELLAlejandro Tabilo$30.0K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Sonego$12.2K@ 37.0¢
VPenguin0xfbf3…b218
🐋—1 day ago
BUYAlejandro Tabilo$63.8K@ 66.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—1 day ago
BUYLorenzo Sonego$53.5K@ 58.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—1 day ago
BUYAlejandro Tabilo$11.9K@ 39.58¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—1 day ago
BUYLorenzo Sonego$10.0K@ 61.0¢
PonzioPeraltro0x736a…f2cf
🐋—1 day ago
BUYLorenzo Sonego$11.2K@ 59.17¢
ch27er0x61a3…e508
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Alejandro Tabilo$64.9K
BUY VWAP 65.42¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Lorenzo Sonego$53.5K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
redvinnyAlejandro Tabilo$30.2K
BUY VWAP 64.20¢·18 fills
VPenguinLorenzo Sonego$18.2K
BUY VWAP 40.02¢·2 fills
VenusianAlejandro Tabilo$15.7K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·2 fills
keeptheblueflagflyinghighAlejandro Tabilo$15.3K
BUY VWAP 45.80¢·4 fills
ch27erLorenzo Sonego$12.5K
BUY VWAP 59.26¢·2 fills
kkookkooAlejandro Tabilo$11.9K
BUY VWAP 39.58¢·1 fill
IAmSpartaAlejandro Tabilo$11.2K
BUY VWAP 57.39¢·5 fills
IAmSpartaLorenzo Sonego$11.0K
BUY VWAP 40.41¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.