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M25 San Gregorio di Catania: Gabriele Pennaforti vs Luca Potenza

● quote 54 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $35.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $75.3KEvent: M25 San Gregorio di Catania: Gabriele Pennaforti vs Luca Potenza

Indicative prices · 54 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.55¢
YES
99.45¢
Luca Potenza
0.7¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$15.6K trackedsource coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 120 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Luca Potenza · $12.6K net·3 wallets·$12.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLuca Potenza$2.5K@ 77¢·xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$11.5K
tracked
$15.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: Luca Potenza · $12.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.7¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 54 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 120 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-18 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Gabriele Pennaforti and Luca Potenza in the M25 San Gregorio di Catania, Main Draw, originally scheduled for November 11, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gabriele Pennaforti' if Gabriele Pennaforti advances against Luca Potenza. This market will resolve to 'Luca Potenza' if Luca Potenza advances against Gabriele Pennaforti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $213 → $216 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor Luca Potenza. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hLuca Potenza · $11.5K
24hLuca Potenza · $11.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. Luca Potenza fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.55¢
VWAP 24h17.96¢▼ below by 17.4pp
VWAP 7d17.96¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$3.7K
20¢
$8.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$4.0K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.