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Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)

Sports→BasketballSettlement: NuggetsLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $25.5KEvent: Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
100.0¢
Nuggets payout
0.0¢
Grizzlies payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:15 trades$694 trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 675 min agoofficial metadata 622 min ago

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Nuggets. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-12 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Nuggets" if the Nuggets win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Grizzlies".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Nuggets and Grizzlies, originally scheduled for Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Nuggets" if the Nuggets win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Friday, November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 10h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 10h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
BreakTheBank3 linked markets · $33.3K gross
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh7 linked markets · $21.1K gross
takeormake4 linked markets · $20.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Nuggets DOWN 14.5pp · near-book depth $330 → $1.1K · 25s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nuggets; negative values favor Grizzlies. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGrizzlies · $100
6hNuggets · $430
24hNuggets · $281

Nuggets price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nuggets price. Grizzlies fills are converted to the complementary Nuggets probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h48.3¢▲ above by 51.7pp
VWAP 7d48.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nuggets price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$4
55¢
$25
50¢
$105
45¢
$704
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.