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Dota 2: 1win vs Froglings (BO3) - 1win Essence Group D

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $36.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $103.7KEvent: Dota 2: 1win vs Froglings (BO3) - 1win Essence Group D

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

71.0¢
1win
29.0¢
Froglings
8.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection63Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution60Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority79Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 81%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:56 trades$25.2K trackedsource coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:1win · $3.3K net·7 wallets·$3.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFroglings$8.0K@ 47¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Froglings pressure: $15.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$15.8K
6h
−$16.0K
tracked
$25.2K

7 verified profitable wallets: 1win · $3.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
8.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 81% · priority 79

Since latest large flow: -13.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 8.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Froglings or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-15 04:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win the match against Froglings.

•This market will resolve to "Froglings" if Froglings win the match against 1win.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between 1win and Froglings in the 1win Essence Group D, initially scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win the match against Froglings. This market will resolve to "Froglings" if Froglings win the match against 1win. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 39m ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 4h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 6h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $47.5K gross
23or1savage2 linked markets · $3.4K gross
0x1f84…98f12 linked markets · $200 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Froglings8m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Froglings@ 46.0¢22m ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp
Latest book event: Froglings DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $729 → $360 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 1win; negative values favor Froglings. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFroglings · $15.8K
6hFroglings · $16.0K
24hFroglings · $15.1K

1win price VWAP

Volume-weighted 1win price. Froglings fills are converted to the complementary 1win probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current71.0¢
VWAP 24h50.49¢▲ above by 20.5pp
VWAP 7d50.49¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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1win price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.4K
55¢
$845
50¢
$10.2K
45¢
$7.5K
40¢
$2.7K
35¢
$1.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Froglings$17.0K
BUY VWAP 49.90¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.