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BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $295.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $515.9KEvent: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

60.05¢
Taylor Fritz
39.95¢
Thiago Agustin Tirante
1.5¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets71Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:183 trades$190.1K trackedsource coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Taylor Fritz · $25.6K net·12 wallets·$39.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYThiago Agustin Tirante$8.7K@ 20¢·0xc8ad…83dc

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Taylor Fritz SETUP
What the tape says

Taylor Fritz pressure: $10.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.6K
6h
+$73.6K
tracked
$190.1K

12 verified profitable wallets: Taylor Fritz · $25.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.5¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 84% · priority 60

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Taylor Fritz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-21 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Taylor Fritz and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Taylor Fritz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9e3e…f8823 linked markets · $110 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Thiago Agustin Tirante UP 4.7pp · near-book depth $15.8K → $19.2K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Taylor Fritz; negative values favor Thiago Agustin Tirante. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTaylor Fritz · $10.6K
6hTaylor Fritz · $73.6K
24hTaylor Fritz · $75.5K

Taylor Fritz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Taylor Fritz price. Thiago Agustin Tirante fills are converted to the complementary Taylor Fritz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current60.05¢
VWAP 24h83.2¢▼ below by 23.1pp
VWAP 7d83.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Taylor Fritz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$25.5K
90¢
$27.8K
85¢
$16.2K
80¢
$22.5K
75¢
$62.3K
70¢
$17.6K
65¢
$6.0K
60¢
← now
$6.4K
55¢
$0
50¢
$5.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LightParadoxTaylor Fritz$22.8K
BUY VWAP 81.86¢·7 fills
keeptheblueflagflyinghighTaylor Fritz$14.0K
BUY VWAP 84.24¢·3 fills
0xc8ad…83dcThiago Agustin Tirante$10.0K
BUY VWAP 20.24¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.