Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

● quote 9959 min ago

Politics→Closes: 8 daysLiquidity: $93.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $134.2KEvent: MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner

99.9¢

YES

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution29Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$34.2K@ 69¢·coali10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$33.7K

tracked

$35.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Only 0 tracked trades / 16 wallets in the 24h sample.
•Executable quote is 9959 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 10131 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolved

Trading

Orders paused

Deadline

2026-08-04 00:00 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Recent definition/status changes

TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 7d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$0

6h+$33.7K

24h+$33.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current99.9¢

VWAP 24h69.6¢▲ above by 30.3pp

VWAP 7d69.6¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

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$698

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