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Dota 2: Aurora vs DO KONCA - Game 1 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $40.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $496.9KEvent: Dota 2: Aurora vs DO KONCA (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

39.5¢
Aurora
60.5¢
DO KONCA
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets63Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution33Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 15 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:155 trades$133.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:DO KONCA · $13.2K net·15 wallets·$21.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora$10.0K@ 64¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

DO KONCA pressure: $9.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$9.5K
6h
−$7.3K
tracked
$133.1K

15 verified profitable wallets: DO KONCA · $13.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 85% · priority 48

Since latest large flow: -12.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from DO KONCA or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-15 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against DO KONCA.

•This market will resolve to "DO KONCA" if DO KONCA win Game 1 against Aurora.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 3 match between Aurora and DO KONCA in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for November 15, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against DO KONCA. This market will resolve to "DO KONCA" if DO KONCA win Game 1 against Aurora. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 15, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 1h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $35.0K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $2.7K gross
ameisgoat112 linked markets · $388 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora@ 53.0¢44m ago
15m INVALIDATED -20.0pp
Latest book event: DO KONCA DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $225 → $156 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora; negative values favor DO KONCA. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDO KONCA · $9.5K
6hDO KONCA · $7.3K
24hDO KONCA · $7.3K

Aurora price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora price. DO KONCA fills are converted to the complementary Aurora probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.5¢
VWAP 24h50.93¢▼ below by 11.4pp
VWAP 7d50.93¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$7.0K
60¢
$33.8K
55¢
$19.0K
50¢
$29.5K
45¢
$1.4K
40¢
$5.9K
35¢
← now
$17.9K
30¢
$12.9K
25¢
$2.0K
20¢
$3.8K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora$10.0K@ 64.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Aurora vs DO KONCA (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs
48.5¢$72.1Kpriority39Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs DO KONCA (+1.5)
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Dota 2: Aurora vs DO KONCA - Game 2 Winner
61.5¢$3.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
56.0¢$33priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: KONCA (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)
29.0¢$1priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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79.5¢$496.5Kpriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Aurora$33.0K
BUY VWAP 60.36¢·11 fills
MedoD3PDO KONCA$15.5K
BUY VWAP 64.48¢·4 fills
0xf3ce…a57aDO KONCA$11.3K
BUY VWAP 46.16¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.