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Dota 2: Aurora vs DO KONCA - Game 2 Winner

Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $3.0KEvent: Dota 2: Aurora vs DO KONCA (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs

Polymarket indicative prices · 11 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

61.5¢
Aurora
38.5¢
DO KONCA
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:2 trades$9 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 166 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$3
tracked
$9

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-15 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 2 against DO KONCA.

•This market will resolve to "DO KONCA" if DO KONCA win Game 2 against Aurora.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 3 match between Aurora and DO KONCA in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for November 15, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 2 against DO KONCA. This market will resolve to "DO KONCA" if DO KONCA win Game 2 against Aurora. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 15, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 1h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $35.0K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $2.7K gross
ameisgoat112 linked markets · $460 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora; negative values favor DO KONCA. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAurora · $0
6hDO KONCA · $3
24hDO KONCA · $3

Aurora price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora price. DO KONCA fills are converted to the complementary Aurora probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.5¢
VWAP 24h63.35¢▼ below by 1.8pp
VWAP 7d63.35¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$9
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.