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Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Politics→Closes: about 2 monthsLiquidity: $14.5KOfficial 24h Vol: —
4.5¢
YES
95.5¢
NO
91.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution11Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 25%

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$0

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
91.1¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 25% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 0 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 0% of tracked volume.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
climax
Trading
Unknown
Deadline
2026-09-13 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Resolution wording is unavailable. Treat this as missing decision evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$0
24h+$0
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Verified directional wallets · 7d
No smart wallet activity