Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

● quote 35 min ago

Politics→Closes: about 23 hoursLiquidity: $46.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $109.6KEvent: Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner

96.9¢

YES

3.1¢

0.9¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:65 trades$58.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 41 min agoofficial metadata 35 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$24.1K·3 wallets·$24.1K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$17.1K@ 96¢·0x22e4…ef1c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

YES pressure: +$16.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

+$16.6K

+$31.7K

tracked

$58.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$24.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.9¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 65

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Executable quote is 35 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 41 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 35 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-11 00:00 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$16.6K

6h+$31.7K

24h+$53.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current96.9¢

VWAP 24h96.3¢▲ above by 0.6pp

VWAP 7d96.2¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$73.0K

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢