simpleman
0xbe89905ca9a689f5129621b62fcf715b5a45b88c
$-3370
Real PnL
-0.7%
ROI
$30.3K
Volume
$491.0K
Invested
50.0%
YES Bias
2
Trades (DB)
33/38
Markets Won
whale50Whale Activity — large wallet trades $10k+ in last 24h
Open positions:17 markets·current value $82.3K·71 closed
PnL by Market (88)17 open71 closed
● open No · $31.4Kin $73.3Kout $42.5Kunreal +$526
$-29711
● open No · $30.3Kin $30.0Kunreal +$289
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
● open Yes · $5.7Kin $5.6Kunreal +$63
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?
● open No · $5.1Kin $3.0Kunreal +$112
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?
● open No · $6.4Kout $1.9Kunreal +$702
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
● open No · $2.1Kout $2.0Kunreal +$50
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by March 31, 2026?
● open No · $507in $500unreal +$7
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
● open No · $371in $372unreal $-1
Will Trump sue Trevor Noah by March 31?
● open Yes · $1in $50unreal $-49
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
● open Yes · $9in $50unreal $-41
Will Trump nationalize elections?
● open Yes · $45in $50unreal $-5
Will Trump sue Michael Wolff by March 31?
● open Yes · $2in $28unreal $-26
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
● open No · $160in $100unreal +$60
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?
● open No · $180in $91unreal +$59
Will Schumer remain Minority Leader through March 31?
● open Yes · $50out $16unreal +$8
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
● open Yes · $59in $19unreal +$40
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?
● open Yes · $1in $10unreal $-9
● closedin $318.1Kout $371.0K
Kristi Noem out by March 31?
● closedout $2.7K
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
● closedin $1.2Kout $3.5K
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?
● closedout $1.7K
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
● closedin $17.0Kout $18.0K
March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?
● closedin $1.0K
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?
● closedout $630
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
● closedin $20.0Kout $19.5K
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
● closedout $390
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by March 31, 2026?
● closedin $2.5Kout $2.7K
Will anyone be kicked out of Trump's State of the Union address?
● closedout $219
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged?
● closedout $201
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
● closedin $15.0Kout $14.8K
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?
● closedout $188
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?
● closedout $169
Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?
● closedin $125out $291
Another US bank failure by February 28?
● closedout $134
Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?
● closedin $43out $140
Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?
● closedin $10out $101
Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?
● closedin $90
Another Canada election called by June 30?
● closedin $220out $306
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January?
● closedin $67
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?
● closedout $54
Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?
● closedin $75out $24
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in January?
● closedin $49
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
● closedout $32
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
● closedout $29
Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during the State of the Union address?
● closedout $27
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in January?
● closedin $19
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in January?
● closedin $18
Will Trump say "Witkoff" during the State of the Union address?
● closedout $16
War Powers resolution passes the Senate?
● closedin $88out $100
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8?
● closedin $2.3Kout $2.3K
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates
● closedout $5
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?
● closedout $1
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?
● closedout $1
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
● closedout $1
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
● closedout $1
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?
● closedout $0
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?
● closedout $0
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in January?
● closedin $0
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
● closed
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
● closed
Will 2 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs?
● closed
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in January?
● closed
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
● closed
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
● closed
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in January?
● closed
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in January?
● closed
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
● closed
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?
● closed
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
● closed
Will 1 judge rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs?
● closed
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?
● closed
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?
● closed
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
● closed
| Market | Invested | Received | Unrealized | Trades | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? ●open No· $31.4K | $73.3K | $42.5K | +$526 | 4 | $-30299 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? ●open No· $30.3K | $30.0K | $0 | +$289 | 1 | $-29711 |
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? ●open Yes· $5.7K | $5.6K | $0 | +$63 | 34 | $-5559 |
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? ●open No· $5.1K | $3.0K | $0 | +$112 | 1 | $-2888 |
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? ●open No· $6.4K | $0 | $1.9K | +$702 | 3 | +$2.6K |
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? ●open No· $2.1K | $0 | $2.0K | +$50 | 27 | +$2.1K |
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by March 31, 2026? ●open No· $507 | $500 | $0 | +$7 | 1 | $-493 |
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? ●open No· $371 | $372 | $0 | $-1 | 1 | $-374 |
Will Trump sue Trevor Noah by March 31? ●open Yes· $1 | $50 | $0 | $-49 | 1 | $-99 |
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? ●open Yes· $9 | $50 | $0 | $-41 | 1 | $-91 |
Will Trump nationalize elections? ●open Yes· $45 | $50 | $0 | $-5 | 1 | $-55 |
Will Trump sue Michael Wolff by March 31? ●open Yes· $2 | $28 | $0 | $-26 | 4 | $-54 |
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? ●open No· $160 | $100 | $0 | +$60 | 1 | $-40 |
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? ●open No· $180 | $91 | $0 | +$59 | 1 | $-32 |
Will Schumer remain Minority Leader through March 31? ●open Yes· $50 | $0 | $16 | +$8 | 1 | +$24 |
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? ●open Yes· $59 | $19 | $0 | +$40 | 12 | +$21 |
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting? ●open Yes· $1 | $10 | $0 | $-9 | 1 | $-19 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? ● closed | $318.1K | $371.0K | — | 172 | +$52.9K |
Kristi Noem out by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $2.7K | — | 2 | +$2.7K |
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? ● closed | $1.2K | $3.5K | — | 15 | +$2.4K |
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? ● closed | $0 | $1.7K | — | 6 | +$1.7K |
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? ● closed | $17.0K | $18.0K | — | 2 | +$1.0K |
March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28? ● closed | $1.0K | $0 | — | 1 | $-1000 |
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? ● closed | $0 | $630 | — | 2 | +$630 |
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $20.0K | $19.5K | — | 2 | $-486 |
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? ● closed | $0 | $390 | — | 1 | +$390 |
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by March 31, 2026? ● closed | $2.5K | $2.7K | — | 3 | +$232 |
Will anyone be kicked out of Trump's State of the Union address? ● closed | $0 | $219 | — | 0 | +$219 |
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? ● closed | $0 | $201 | — | 0 | +$201 |
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $15.0K | $14.8K | — | 2 | $-192 |
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%? ● closed | $0 | $188 | — | 0 | +$188 |
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? ● closed | $0 | $169 | — | 1 | +$169 |
Will Powell say "War" during March press conference? ● closed | $125 | $291 | — | 2 | +$166 |
Another US bank failure by February 28? ● closed | $0 | $134 | — | 0 | +$134 |
Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference? ● closed | $43 | $140 | — | 9 | +$97 |
Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference? ● closed | $10 | $101 | — | 1 | +$91 |
Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference? ● closed | $90 | $0 | — | 2 | $-90 |
Another Canada election called by June 30? ● closed | $220 | $306 | — | 5 | +$86 |
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January? ● closed | $67 | $0 | — | 23 | $-67 |
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $54 | — | 1 | +$54 |
Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference? ● closed | $75 | $24 | — | 3 | $-51 |
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in January? ● closed | $49 | $0 | — | 44 | $-49 |
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? ● closed | $0 | $32 | — | 0 | +$32 |
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? ● closed | $0 | $29 | — | 1 | +$29 |
Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during the State of the Union address? ● closed | $0 | $27 | — | 0 | +$27 |
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in January? ● closed | $19 | $0 | — | 15 | $-19 |
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in January? ● closed | $18 | $0 | — | 21 | $-18 |
Will Trump say "Witkoff" during the State of the Union address? ● closed | $0 | $16 | — | 0 | +$16 |
War Powers resolution passes the Senate? ● closed | $88 | $100 | — | 1 | +$12 |
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? ● closed | $2.3K | $2.3K | — | 2 | $-9 |
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates ● closed | $0 | $5 | — | 0 | +$5 |
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $1 | — | 1 | +$1 |
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $1 | — | 1 | +$1 |
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $1 | — | 1 | +$1 |
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $1 | — | 1 | +$1 |
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 1 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 1 | +$0 |
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in January? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 2 | $-0 |
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Union address? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will 2 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in January? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Union address? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in January? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in January? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will 1 judge rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Recent Trades (2)
YES$300@ 99.9¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?11 days ago
Trading Activity · 90d
2 active days
Category Accuracy
Geopolitics
$103.3K0%0/1
Entry Timing Before Resolution
>7d
1 betsunresolved0/0
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