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Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

● quote 76 min ago
Crypto→Politics→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $224.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $6.1KEvent: Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
6.3¢
YES
93.7¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:105 trades$602 trackedsource coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $996 net·5 wallets·$1.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$217.8K@ 95¢·EamonnD1812

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$33
tracked
$602

5 verified profitable wallets: NO · $996 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 76 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 95.0¢9d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED -0.2pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY NO@ 92.8¢25d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.8pp24h STALLED +0.3pp
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY NO@ 92.8¢25d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.8pp24h STALLED +0.3pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY NO@ 92.7¢25d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED +1.1pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $1
6hNO · $33
24hNO · $192

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.3¢
VWAP 24h6.1¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d5.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$87.9K
15¢
$288.9K
10¢
$160.6K
5¢
← now
$783.9K
0¢
$355.8K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$217.8K@ 95.2¢
EamonnD18120xca79…4796
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$19.8K@ 94.7¢
Zzzz870x2117…5c26
🐋—15 days ago
BUYNO$33.3K@ 92.6¢
tourists0xc6dd…4b9f
🐋—25 days ago
BUYNO$143.4K@ 92.3¢
yuahldj0x27b0…209b
🐋—25 days ago
BUYNO$43.7K@ 92.5¢
yuahldj0x27b0…209b
🐋—25 days ago
BUYNO$10.6K@ 91.6¢
yuahldj0x27b0…209b
🐋—25 days ago
BUYNO$12.8K@ 92.0¢
Trump20280x2e0b…8070
🐋—26 days ago
BUYNO$17.6K@ 92.2¢
tourists0xc6dd…4b9f
🐋—27 days ago
SELLNO$30.7K@ 91.8¢
backback0x996a…e3cc
🐋—28 days ago
BUYYES$14.6K@ 6.8¢
wan1230xde7b…5f4b
🐋—28 days ago
BUYNO$13.9K@ 95.2¢
DavidTrezeguet0xc88e…f3e1
🐋—29 days ago
SELLNO$16.1K@ 95.2¢
roroelguapo0x8e89…c03b
🐋—29 days ago
SELLNO$10.4K@ 95.3¢
JUSTINHERBERTMVP0x86e9…4cdf
🐋—29 days ago
SELLNO$10.3K@ 95.0¢
Smokedpaneer0xe8d3…2306
🐋—29 days ago
BUYNO$14.0K@ 95.0¢
JUSTINHERBERTMVP0x86e9…4cdf
🐋—29 days ago
BUYNO$15.5K@ 87.0¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—29 days ago
BUYNO$13.2K@ 86.0¢
sbimbg0xf519…906b
🐋—29 days ago
BUYYES$17.6K@ 19.8¢
keasiyo0xee67…ef38
🐋—29 days ago
BUYNO$10.8K@ 84.0¢
542hfwo030xe915…3d7f
🐋—29 days ago
BUYYES$19.6K@ 16.0¢
zz12230x0979…eb0a
🐋—29 days ago
BUYNO$10.1K@ 88.0¢
tourists0xc6dd…4b9f
🐋—29 days ago
BUYNO$14.8K@ 87.6¢
roroelguapo0x8e89…c03b
🐋—29 days ago
BUYNO$30.0K@ 85.9¢
ProfessionalPunter0x22e4…ef1c
🐋—29 days ago
SELLNO$12.4K@ 80.0¢
542hfwo030xe915…3d7f
🐋—30 days ago
BUYNO$20.0K@ 79.0¢
tourists0xc6dd…4b9f
🐋—30 days ago
BUYNO$14.2K@ 77.0¢0x84dc…92cb🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$26.6K@ 76.0¢
ProfessionalPunter0x22e4…ef1c
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$22.0K@ 75.0¢
tourists0xc6dd…4b9f
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$19.6K@ 73.0¢
ProfessionalPunter0x22e4…ef1c
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$43.2K@ 73.4¢
uninformedfloww0xa0e7…9461
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$36.6K@ 23.3¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$23.4K@ 36.4¢
judgejowday0xb1c2…891a
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$16.9K@ 27.6¢
judgejowday0xb1c2…891a
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$17.1K@ 26.6¢
judgejowday0xb1c2…891a
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$25.0K@ 25.0¢
judgejowday0xb1c2…891a
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$17.8K@ 75.0¢
321cba0x5a65…59c7
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$108.5K@ 79.7¢
321cba0x5a65…59c7
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 18.9¢
duatity0xf066…dd2c
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$38.7K@ 83.0¢
sloxk30xdbca…57e3
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$12.9K@ 84.0¢
pilimili0xd104…acef
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$17.5K@ 84.0¢
Zzzz870x2117…5c26
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$15.0K@ 15.0¢
shadyjdz0x7b02…1fdd
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$344.2K@ 86.2¢
TahitiBob0xe609…d4d4
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$83.8K@ 88.0¢
TahitiBob0xe609…d4d4
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$55.4K@ 85.0¢
Istaroth0x9efd…ad00
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$61.5K@ 13.7¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$453.9K@ 84.6¢
TahitiBob0xe609…d4d4
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$41.2K@ 84.0¢
purplegatto0x032e…2a9e
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$12.9K@ 86.0¢
Attack-Titan0x9ff2…d02b
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLYES$11.2K@ 14.0¢
Nopants0x94a5…4eb8
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.