PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?

● quote 29s ago
Crypto→Token LaunchCloses: about 1 yearLiquidity: $30.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $48.3KEvent: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Indicative prices · 29s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

90.5¢
YES
9.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly4Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$36.2K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 76%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 19s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$20.8K@ 94¢·kukasistaken

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$50
6h
−$50
tracked
$36.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $1.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-01-01 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://predict.fun/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

•"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
999ssf2 linked markets · $94.8K gross
alphaalii2 linked markets · $44.1K gross
SeniorLaghetto3 linked markets · $11.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 95.6¢10h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.4pp1h INVALIDATED -3.4pp6h INVALIDATED -4.7pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $50
6hNO · $50
24hYES · $8.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current90.5¢
VWAP 24h93.4¢▼ below by 2.9pp
VWAP 7d92.95¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$3.5K
90¢
← now
$34.8K
85¢
$4.5K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$20.8K@ 94.22¢
kukasistaken0x5155…a7dd
🐋—about 10 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?
51.2¢$74.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
99.5¢$61.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
97.7¢$11.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?
62.35¢$283.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?
15.5¢$171.0Kpriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?
3.45¢$164.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?
0.15¢$151.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?
73.2¢$143.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kukasistakenYes$22.2K
BUY VWAP 94.33¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.