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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

● quote 3028 min ago
Geopolitics→Closes: 5 monthsLiquidity: $162.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $66.5KEvent: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
9.5¢
YES
90.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 0%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$14.1K@ 91¢·schizohedgehog

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$0

1 verified profitable wallet: −$14.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 0% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 0 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 0% of tracked volume.
  • •Executable quote is 3028 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$0
24h+$0
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$191
5¢
← now
$14.3K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$14.1K@ 91.0¢
schizohedgehog0x4755…4158
🐋—7 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

schizohedgehogNo$14.1K
BUY VWAP 91.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.