PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Geopolitics→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $2.6MOfficial 24h Vol: —
0.1¢
YES
99.8¢
NO
99.7¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 0%

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$0

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
99.7¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 0% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 0 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
disputed
Trading
Unknown
Deadline
2026-04-21 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Resolution wording is unavailable. Treat this as missing decision evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.disputed
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
26.5¢$1.4Mpriority42Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
20.5¢$533.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
98.1¢$187.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
93.5¢$163.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
2.3¢$115.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
3.3¢$105.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
68.0¢$101.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.