PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?

● quote just now
Politics→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $57.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $64.3KEvent: Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
2.1¢
YES
98.0¢
NO
1.9¢
Spread
anomaly4Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$33.6K tracked22% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $4.2K net·3 wallets·$4.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$12.9K@ 92¢·flawfence

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$9
6h
−$28.7K
tracked
$33.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $4.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.9¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Russia Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
flawfence3 linked markets · $53.3K gross
donthackme3 linked markets · $2.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $9
6hNO · $28.7K
24hNO · $33.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.1¢
VWAP 24h9.7¢▼ below by 7.6pp
VWAP 7d9.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$4.8K
10¢
$11.7K
5¢
$12.9K
0¢
← now
$4.3K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$12.9K@ 91.6¢
flawfence0x23d8…0288
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYNO$11.7K@ 89.7¢
flawfence0x23d8…0288
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
66.4¢$91.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
0.1¢$21.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
0.1¢$12.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
80.5¢$2.5Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.7Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.6Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$948.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

flawfenceNo$29.4K
BUY VWAP 88.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.