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Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?

● quote just now
Politics→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $39.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $91.9KEvent: Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
66.3¢
YES
33.8¢
NO
0.5¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets6Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$28.6K trackedsource coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 34s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $1.4K net·2 wallets·$16.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$6.2K@ 67¢·sadcatkek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$8
6h
+$20.9K
tracked
$28.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: YES · $1.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.5¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Russia Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
flawfence3 linked markets · $53.3K gross
donthackme3 linked markets · $2.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $8
6hYES · $20.9K
24hYES · $13.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current66.3¢
VWAP 24h47.2¢▲ above by 19.1pp
VWAP 7d47.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$6.4K
60¢
$7
55¢
$0
50¢
$3.5K
45¢
$8.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$9.2K
25¢
$1.4K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.