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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Geopolitics→Politics→Settlement: NOLiquidity: $105.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $56.4KEvent: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$25.0K@ 100¢·texture

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 51d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
hosoon1232 linked markets · $11.5K gross
DiaMat2 linked markets · $8.6K gross
657657572 linked markets · $5.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.6¢39d ago
15m STALLED -0.4pp1h STALLED -0.3pp6h STALLED -1.6pp24h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.9¢41d ago
15m STALLED -1.7pp1h STALLED -1.4pp6h STALLED -0.3pp24h STALLED -1.5pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $2.3K
24hYES · $2.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h0.1¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d0.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$72.5K
0¢
← now
$554.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$12.1K@ 99.9¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—7 days ago
SELLNO$12.1K@ 99.9¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$25.0K@ 99.9¢
texture0x178d…74ed
🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$14.1K@ 99.9¢
37ordinary0x9959…d99b
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$10.1K@ 97.5¢
Huludubu0xe738…df65
🐋—23 days ago
SELLNO$12.3K@ 97.6¢
Parz1vaI0xb100…6461
🐋—23 days ago
SELLNO$15.2K@ 98.1¢
anoin1230x9648…6825
🐋—23 days ago
BUYNO$10.7K@ 96.2¢
Moonshot10190x9c98…f4f4
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$23.4K@ 97.0¢
MoonLambo12050x49e9…8f85
🐋—about 1 month ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.