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Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Geopolitics→Closes: —Liquidity: $3.3MOfficial 24h Vol: —
99.9Β’
YES
99.9Β’
NO
99.9Β’
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly β€” current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction β€” strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality β€” contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution β€” spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority β€” ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 25%

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist β€” not a trade recommendation

WAIT β€” MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$0

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
99.9Β’displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 25% Β· priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • β€’Price is near 0/100Β’; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • β€’Only 0 tracked trades / 0 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • β€’BUY/SELL is known for 0% of tracked volume.
  • β€’Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
disputed
Trading
Unknown
Deadline
Unavailable
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Resolution wording is unavailable. Treat this as missing decision evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook Β· both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.disputed

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$0
24h+$0
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Observed net position building

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Observed Tape Β· retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
πŸ‹ Large Trades$10,000+ Β· retained 30dΞ” now
SELLYES$13.4K@ 99.9Β’0x0260…0d88πŸ‹β€”2 months ago
SELLYES$50.0K@ 99.9Β’
thegreengem0xdcd6…84cd
πŸ‹β€”2 months ago
SELLYES$50.0K@ 99.9Β’
thegreengem0xdcd6…84cd
πŸ‹β€”2 months ago
SELLYES$199.8K@ 99.9Β’
thegreengem0xdcd6…84cd
πŸ‹β€”2 months ago
SELLYES$99.9K@ 99.9Β’
thegreengem0xdcd6…84cd
πŸ‹β€”2 months ago
SELLYES$149.8K@ 99.9Β’
thegreengem0xdcd6…84cd
πŸ‹β€”2 months ago

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Observed whale buys Β· 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.