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Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

● quote 250 min ago
Finance→Tech→CorporateCloses: 2 monthsLiquidity: $57.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $7.0KEvent: Anthropic IPO by __?

Indicative prices · 250 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

94.4¢
YES
5.6¢
NO
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$441 trackedsource coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 946 min agoofficial metadata 519 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $6.1K net·8 wallets·$6.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$20.8K@ 74¢·aenews2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$441

8 verified profitable wallets: NO · $6.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 250 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 946 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 519 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

•If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 29d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mewmew12 linked markets · $28.4K gross
Tenebrus72 linked markets · $5.8K gross
GGInInder30cm2 linked markets · $3.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 75.0¢11d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED +2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 82.0¢29d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $434

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current94.4¢
VWAP 24h94.23¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d86.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$4.9K
90¢
← now
$12.6K
85¢
$15.8K
80¢
$42.8K
75¢
$13.7K
70¢
$41.7K
65¢
$11.7K
60¢
$1.8K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$20.8K@ 74.0¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—11 days ago
BUYYES$11.2K@ 80.65¢
Erasmus.0xc658…b784
🐋—29 days ago
BUYYES$14.5K@ 94.28¢
pmrev0x7b8c…1556
🐋—2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mewmew1Yes$12.3K
BUY VWAP 91.79¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.