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Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

● quote 160 min ago
Crypto→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $153.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $629.5KEvent: What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:20 trades$615.0K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 98%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 174 min agoofficial metadata 160 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$409.0K·2 wallets(2🐋)·$409.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$297.0K@ 99¢·pelik

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$613.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$613.0K
6h
+$615.0K
tracked
$615.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$409.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 160 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 174 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 160 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Unknown
Deadline
2027-01-01 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Resolution wording is unavailable. Treat this as missing decision evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x731a…033f2 linked markets · $108.5K gross
0xf705…3ca74 linked markets · $50.8K gross
0x9abc…decf2 linked markets · $44.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$613.0K
6h+$615.0K
24h+$615.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h98.9¢▲ above by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d98.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$612.0K
90¢
$1.0K
85¢
$3.3K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.9K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$17.8K@ 99.9¢
AgricultureSecretary0x6ffb…a834
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$53.9K@ 99.0¢
AgricultureSecretary0x6ffb…a834
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$17.8K@ 99.0¢0x82cf…0998🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$32.7K@ 99.0¢
pelik0x6a88…b859
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$297.0K@ 99.0¢
pelik0x6a88…b859
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$44.5K@ 99.0¢
pelik0x6a88…b859
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$32.8K@ 99.0¢0xf705…3ca7🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$59.0K@ 99.0¢0x731a…033f🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$19.8K@ 99.0¢0x751a…9ea1🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$24.9K@ 99.0¢0x9abc…decf🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

pelikYes$374.2K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·3 fills
AgricultureSecretaryYes$71.7K
BUY VWAP 99.2¢·2 fills
0x731a…033fYes$64.0K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·2 fills
0xf705…3ca7Yes$34.8K
BUY VWAP 96.2¢·2 fills
0x9abc…decfYes$24.9K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill
0x751a…9ea1Yes$19.8K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill
0x82cf…0998Yes$17.8K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.