Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?

● quote 39 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $5.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $70.2KEvent: Where will Julian Alvarez transfer?

0.4¢

YES

99.6¢

0.6¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution73Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:6 trades$15.6K trackedsource coverage 22%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 144 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$6.9K@ 99¢·0x3328…e6b8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$2.8K

tracked

$15.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $2.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.6¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 39 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 144 minutes old.
•Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-09-02 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•If Julian Alvarez does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Atletico Madrid".

•If Julian Alvarez joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to the next team Julian Alvarez officially joins by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Julian Alvarez does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Atletico Madrid". If Julian Alvarez joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Julian Alvarez is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Atletico Madrid and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hYES · $2.8K

24hNO · $10.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.4¢

VWAP 24h4.7¢▼ below by 4.3pp

VWAP 7d3.5¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

50¢

45¢

40¢

35¢

30¢

25¢

$1.6K

20¢

15¢

10¢

$1.2K

5¢

$4.3K

0¢

← now

$36.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3328…e6b8No$28.9K

BUY VWAP 97.4¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.