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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

● quote just now
Finance→Closes: 2 daysLiquidity: $1.7MOfficial 24h Vol: $3.6MEvent: Fed Decision in October?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

93.65¢
YES
6.35¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly18Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 84 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1648 trades$1.1M tracked1% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $93.9K net·84 wallets(7🐋)·$996.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$210.9K@ 94¢·bobe2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$75
6h
+$87.7K
tracked
$1.1M

84 verified profitable wallets: YES · $93.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -0.1pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-29 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Read full resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
bobe22 linked markets · $383.0K gross
arjenw4 linked markets · $360.0K gross
welcometowinnercircle3 linked markets · $357.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 93.8¢5h ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.2pp
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY YES@ 92.6¢11h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 92.2¢12h ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED +0.1pp6h STALLED +1.2pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY YES@ 91.7¢14h ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.3pp6h STALLED +1.7pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $75
6hYES · $87.7K
24hYES · $455.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current93.65¢
VWAP 24h93.77¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d92.61¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$668.0K
90¢
← now
$2.7M
85¢
$1.6M
80¢
$1.5M
75¢
$913.5K
70¢
$600.5K
65¢
$477.2K
60¢
$314.1K
55¢
$225.1K
50¢
$219.6K
45¢
$173.0K
40¢
$10.2K
35¢
$40.3K
30¢
$107.7K
25¢
$11.8K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$14.6K@ 93.8¢
Sisyphus.0xfc25…1f7f
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$19.9K@ 94.0¢
GlobalMuffin0xff1e…5e2d
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYYES$13.9K@ 93.8¢
GlobalMuffin0xff1e…5e2d
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYYES$40.3K@ 93.9¢
Chelseaone0xef9b…d5ed
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$27.1K@ 92.8¢
xrr670x2e3f…6d1b
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYYES$58.0K@ 92.4¢
arjenw0x24de…83cb
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYYES$21.2K@ 92.04¢
arjenw0x24de…83cb
🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYYES$18.9K@ 91.6¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—about 13 hours ago
SELLYES$14.9K@ 91.4¢
arjenw0x24de…83cb
🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYNO$20.8K@ 8.0¢
ratehikes0xa309…4cf2
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYNO$55.6K@ 7.0¢
jsmythyson0x2b2d…1031
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYNO$25.4K@ 6.0¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYYES$39.6K@ 94.4¢
robau0x212f…7fd2
🐋—about 17 hours ago
SELLYES$42.0K@ 95.1¢
arjenw0x24de…83cb
🐋—about 19 hours ago
BUYYES$16.7K@ 95.81¢
mewmew10xe95e…61f2
🐋—about 20 hours ago
BUYYES$15.0K@ 96.0¢
Gmoas0xff76…9c05
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYYES$16.2K@ 96.0¢
Gmoas0xff76…9c05
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYYES$84.5K@ 96.0¢
Gmoas0xff76…9c05
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYYES$19.0K@ 95.0¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYYES$18.9K@ 94.0¢
welcometowinnercircle0x88b2…e1d1
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$10.2K@ 6.0¢
jsmythyson0x2b2d…1031
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$19.9K@ 95.0¢
robau0x212f…7fd2
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$21.5K@ 94.0¢
welcometowinnercircle0x88b2…e1d1
🐋—1 day ago
SELLYES$18.6K@ 93.0¢
arjenw0x24de…83cb
🐋—1 day ago
SELLYES$10.4K@ 93.0¢
arjenw0x24de…83cb
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$113.8K@ 94.0¢
wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1
🐋—1 day ago
SELLYES$16.7K@ 93.0¢
GlobalMuffin0xff1e…5e2d
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$41.5K@ 6.0¢
jsmythyson0x2b2d…1031
🐋—1 day ago
SELLYES$10.2K@ 94.0¢0x1f8a…7f24🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$24.3K@ 95.0¢
Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$76.8K@ 95.0¢
welcometowinnercircle0x88b2…e1d1
🐋—2 days ago
SELLYES$18.8K@ 94.0¢
The-Joker0x9aeb…2729
🐋—2 days ago
BUYYES$47.5K@ 95.0¢0x3ed1…0db0🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$210.9K@ 94.0¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$150.7K@ 93.0¢
welcometowinnercircle0x88b2…e1d1
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$13.4K@ 93.0¢
welcometowinnercircle0x88b2…e1d1
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$20.4K@ 92.0¢
Ronaldo21000x71ca…3501
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$20.4K@ 92.0¢
faceverification0xde58…f55c
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$31.3K@ 92.0¢0x3ed1…0db0🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$16.5K@ 92.0¢
MisTKy0x35bb…009b
🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$29.2K@ 93.0¢
Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7
🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$37.3K@ 92.0¢
MisTKy0x35bb…009b
🐋—4 days ago
SELLYES$73.1K@ 91.0¢
MisTKy0x35bb…009b
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$13.0K@ 8.0¢
jsmythyson0x2b2d…1031
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$12.6K@ 7.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$50.0K@ 94.0¢
alangreenspan0xd941…9625
🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$20.0K@ 94.0¢
Randomfool0xf036…b8f1
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$10.8K@ 6.0¢
jsmythyson0x2b2d…1031
🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$18.7K@ 94.0¢
tsekinming010x69aa…8847
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$44.0K@ 94.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—5 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

welcometowinnercircleYes$319.0K
BUY VWAP 93.81¢·10 fills
bobe2Yes$210.9K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·1 fill
jsmythysonNo$195.5K
BUY VWAP 7.28¢·56 fills
arjenwYes$192.7K
BUY VWAP 92.18¢·14 fills
MisTKyYes$122.0K
BUY VWAP 89.91¢·8 fills
GmoasYes$115.7K
BUY VWAP 96.0¢·3 fills
wokerjoesleeperYes$113.8K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·1 fill
SheltonDoubterYes$103.3K
BUY VWAP 91.48¢·4 fills
alangreenspanYes$100.0K
BUY VWAP 90.90¢·2 fills
0x3ed1…0db0Yes$81.6K
BUY VWAP 93.72¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.