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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

● quote 10s ago
Finance→Closes: 2 daysLiquidity: $1.0MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Fed Decision in October?

Indicative prices · 10s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

6.5¢
YES
93.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly11Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets32Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 59 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:672 trades$249.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 20%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 25 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $155.3K net·59 wallets(8🐋)·$597.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$172.2K@ 94¢·bobe2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $4.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.1K
6h
−$16.2K
tracked
$249.0K

59 verified profitable wallets: NO · $155.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 25 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-29 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Read full resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
arjenw4 linked markets · $431.9K gross
bobe22 linked markets · $383.0K gross
welcometowinnercircle3 linked markets · $357.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 93.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 94.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 94.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 95.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h INVALIDATED -4.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $4.1K
6hNO · $16.2K
24hNO · $108.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.5¢
VWAP 24h5.89¢▲ above by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d8.08¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$10.7K
65¢
$130.8K
60¢
$56.8K
55¢
$6.0K
50¢
$50.9K
45¢
$97.7K
40¢
$244.0K
35¢
$157.7K
30¢
$389.0K
25¢
$307.5K
20¢
$210.9K
15¢
$629.8K
10¢
$717.0K
5¢
← now
$923.6K
0¢
$26.2K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$11.6K@ 8.0¢
CDAP10xe033…40a5
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYYES$11.9K@ 7.0¢
Erasmus.0xc658…b784
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNO$40.6K@ 95.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYNO$19.0K@ 95.0¢
arjenw0x24de…83cb
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYNO$17.0K@ 94.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYYES$17.9K@ 6.0¢
jsmythyson0x2b2d…1031
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$12.0K@ 6.0¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$172.2K@ 94.0¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—2 days ago
BUYNO$18.8K@ 94.0¢
arjenw0x24de…83cb
🐋—2 days ago
BUYNO$47.0K@ 94.0¢0x3ed1…0db0🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$29.0K@ 93.0¢
welcometowinnercircle0x88b2…e1d1
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$56.2K@ 93.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$17.4K@ 94.0¢
b39080xc776…1e92
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$25.9K@ 92.0¢
arjenw0x24de…83cb
🐋—4 days ago
SELLYES$11.0K@ 11.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$17.8K@ 89.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$13.0K@ 13.0¢
wan1230xde7b…5f4b
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$13.3K@ 89.0¢
allenzzz0xe749…f771
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$18.3K@ 87.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$21.5K@ 86.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$22.0K@ 86.0¢
StarryPath0x55b4…80ea
🐋—7 days ago
BUYYES$12.8K@ 14.0¢
jsmythyson0x2b2d…1031
🐋—7 days ago
BUYYES$31.6K@ 13.0¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—7 days ago
BUYYES$21.1K@ 12.0¢
jsmythyson0x2b2d…1031
🐋—7 days ago
SELLNO$14.3K@ 87.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—8 days ago
SELLNO$20.4K@ 86.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—8 days ago
SELLNO$20.3K@ 86.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—8 days ago
SELLNO$20.3K@ 86.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—8 days ago
BUYNO$10.4K@ 87.0¢
Charles09870x7f0c…160c
🐋—9 days ago
BUYYES$11.1K@ 14.0¢
jsmythyson0x2b2d…1031
🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$10.1K@ 73.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$15.4K@ 71.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$13.8K@ 69.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$13.6K@ 39.0¢
jsmythyson0x2b2d…1031
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$10.9K@ 44.0¢
Erasmus.0xc658…b784
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$13.3K@ 47.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$15.7K@ 47.0¢
Erasmus.0xc658…b784
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$22.6K@ 44.75¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$17.1K@ 30.84¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$28.8K@ 28.95¢
Erasmus.0xc658…b784
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$11.9K@ 82.0¢
XAEA12Archangel0xfbfd…0029
🐋—13 days ago
BUYNO$17.5K@ 81.0¢
classified0x12d6…f2a8
🐋—13 days ago
BUYNO$42.2K@ 81.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—14 days ago
BUYYES$12.1K@ 18.0¢
jsmythyson0x2b2d…1031
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$11.6K@ 84.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—15 days ago
SELLYES$10.7K@ 16.0¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—18 days ago
BUYYES$14.2K@ 15.0¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—18 days ago
BUYNO$11.4K@ 86.0¢
classified0x12d6…f2a8
🐋—19 days ago
BUYYES$13.6K@ 16.0¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—19 days ago
BUYNO$10.7K@ 83.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—20 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bobe2No$172.2K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·1 fill
timetowanderNo$108.7K
BUY VWAP 91.15¢·12 fills
SheltonDoubterNo$84.7K
BUY VWAP 91.99¢·5 fills
arjenwNo$77.9K
BUY VWAP 93.04¢·8 fills
jsmythysonYes$60.0K
BUY VWAP 6.68¢·35 fills
0x3ed1…0db0No$47.0K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·1 fill
welcometowinnercircleNo$38.9K
BUY VWAP 93.0¢·2 fills
TheReturnOfDarthMaulYes$38.1K
BUY VWAP 11.24¢·70 fills
Erasmus.Yes$36.9K
BUY VWAP 7.53¢·8 fills
StarryPathNo$29.4K
BUY VWAP 87.77¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.