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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals

● quote 10007 min ago
Sports→Closes: 28 daysLiquidity: $567.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.2MEvent: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly3Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $23.9K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$24.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArizona Diamondbacks (YES)$29.2K@ 49¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$108
6h
−$47.9K
tracked
$106.2K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$23.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 96 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 10007 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 10030 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-07-02 23:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for June 25 at 7:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 7d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 7d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xbca0…97052 linked markets · $809 gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $497 gross
0x5d9e…e0e32 linked markets · $399 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY YES7d ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 80.0¢7d ago
15m CONFIRMED +14.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$108
6h−$47.9K
24h−$33.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h56.3¢▲ above by 43.6pp
VWAP 7d56.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$6.7K
90¢
$5
85¢
$34
80¢
$5.9K
75¢
$330
70¢
$8.9K
65¢
$0
60¢
$9.5K
55¢
$265
50¢
$23.1K
45¢
$44.9K
40¢
$5.1K
35¢
$20
30¢
$3
25¢
$1
20¢
$1.4K
15¢
$10
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSt. Louis Cardinals (NO)$23.0K@ 50.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—7 days ago
BUYArizona Diamondbacks (YES)$29.2K@ 49.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—7 days ago
BUYSt. Louis Cardinals (NO)$14.5K@ 52.0¢0xfd67…ef90🐋—7 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026St. Louis Cardinals$23.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.