Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

● quote 14 min ago
GeopoliticsCloses: 27 daysLiquidity: $24.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $110.4KEvent: Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
22.0¢
YES
78.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly19Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution71Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%
24h sample:29 trades$1.8K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$10
6h
+$521
tracked
$1.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Tracked source coverage is only 2%.
  • Executable quote is 14 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 44 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-31 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$10
6h+$521
24h$316

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current22.0¢
VWAP 24h22.4¢▼ below by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d22.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$38
20¢
← now
$1.4K
15¢
$313
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
51.0¢$65.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5¢$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1¢$421.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
35.7¢$380.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
13.5¢$225.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
93.5¢$164.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1.3¢$126.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
85.1¢$120.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.