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Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

● quote 101 min ago
Geopolitics→Politics→Closes: over 1 yearLiquidity: $204.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $61.5KEvent: Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
11.5¢
YES
88.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 0%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $3.3K net·2 wallets·$3.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$31.1K@ 89¢·NeH

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$0

2 verified profitable wallets: YES · $3.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 0% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 0 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 0% of tracked volume.
  • •Executable quote is 101 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 14d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 89.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 89.0¢21d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $0
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$237.5K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$22.3K@ 89.0¢
bysittingnottrading0xb723…0065
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$26.7K@ 89.0¢
bysittingnottrading0xb723…0065
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$12.1K@ 89.0¢
NeH0x11fc…dc48
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$31.1K@ 89.0¢
NeH0x11fc…dc48
🐋—21 days ago
SELLNO$13.8K@ 88.0¢
realxijinping0xae1d…50e7
🐋—21 days ago
SELLNO$17.1K@ 87.0¢
gmtrader0xa18c…d792
🐋—24 days ago
SELLNO$27.0K@ 86.9¢
hdlisme-acc20xaef2…df3d
🐋—25 days ago
BUYNO$12.2K@ 88.0¢
xiaopxiong0x3b6b…b46a
🐋—26 days ago
SELLNO$12.2K@ 87.0¢
0xrc0x4004…c40b
🐋—27 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bysittingnottradingNo$49.0K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.