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Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Politics→Closes: 8 monthsLiquidity: $56.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $44.1KEvent: Iran leadership change by...?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

30.5¢
YES
69.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly3Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$24.4K trackedsource coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$7.5K@ 72¢·tiya1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$21
6h
+$1.9K
tracked
$24.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $21 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-07-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
nonkenny903 linked markets · $14.0K gross
classified2 linked markets · $9.3K gross
AlAhmeda2 linked markets · $6.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $21
6hYES · $1.9K
24hNO · $18.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current30.5¢
VWAP 24h28.36¢▲ above by 2.1pp
VWAP 7d28.36¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$2.1K
25¢
$22.3K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tiya1No$10.2K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.