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LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner

● quote 17 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $618.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $737.2KEvent: LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%
24h sample:79 trades$90.2K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 98%
tape 78 min agoofficial metadata 19 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKarmine Corp (YES)$38.3K@ 63¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$80.3K
tracked
$90.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +41.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 17 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 78 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-25 22:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Karmine Corp and Movistar KOI in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 25 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win Game 2 against Movistar KOI. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win Game 2 against Karmine Corp. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1111111111152 linked markets · $91.5K gross
esportGG3 linked markets · $36.0K gross
0x01e6…e7e02 linked markets · $6.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Karmine Corp2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Karmine Corp@ 59.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 7.5pp · near-book depth $424 → $180 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$80.3K
24h+$80.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h63.1¢▲ above by 36.9pp
VWAP 7d63.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$620
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$244
65¢
$12.8K
60¢
$72.6K
55¢
$2.4K
50¢
$5
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYKarmine Corp (YES)$38.3K@ 63.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKarmine Corp (YES)$15.5K@ 62.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKarmine Corp (YES)$10.2K@ 61.0¢0x9db8…2eff🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKarmine Corp (YES)$10.4K@ 65.0¢
esportGG0xf070…ac55
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115Karmine Corp$53.8K
BUY VWAP 62.7¢·2 fills
esportGGKarmine Corp$10.4K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
0x9db8…2effKarmine Corp$10.2K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.