UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

● quote 50 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $285.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $626.1KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%
24h sample:58 trades$64.3K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 89%
tape 62 min agoofficial metadata 22 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBogdan Guskov (NO)$28.6K@ 18¢·0x82c8…a5db

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$414
6h
−$3.0K
tracked
$64.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +81.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 50 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 62 minutes old.
  • •Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-07-26 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Magomed Ankalaev" if Magomed Ankalaev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Bogdan Guskov at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov, scheduled for July 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Bogdan Guskov" if Bogdan Guskov is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 8, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 23m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 23m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Bogdan Guskov@ 19.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -18.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 12.5pp · near-book depth $8.2K → $1.0K · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$414
6h−$3.0K
24h−$3.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h82.3¢▲ above by 17.6pp
VWAP 7d82.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.1K
90¢
$102
85¢
$35
80¢
$55.1K
75¢
$85
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMagomed Ankalaev (YES)$10.0K@ 81.0¢0x9e5e…fd91🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBogdan Guskov (NO)$28.6K@ 18.2¢0x82c8…a5db🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMagomed Ankalaev (YES)$15.4K@ 82.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x82c8…a5dbBogdan Guskov$28.6K
BUY VWAP 18.2¢·1 fill
texaskidMagomed Ankalaev$15.4K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·1 fill
0x9e5e…fd91Magomed Ankalaev$10.0K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.