UFC Fight Night: Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki (Lightweight, Main Card)

● quote 46 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $198.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $429.8KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki (Lightweight, Main Card)

100.0¢

YES

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly3Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets27Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:66 trades$62.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 98%

tape 53 min agoofficial metadata 49 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$6.0K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$22.1K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMagomed Zaynukov (YES)$28.7K@ 71¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$56

+$4.9K

tracked

$62.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$6.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +28.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 46 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 53 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 49 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-07-26 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Magomed Zaynukov" if Magomed Zaynukov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Damian Rzepecki at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr., scheduled for July 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Damian Rzepecki" if Damian Rzepecki is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 8, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Magomed Zaynukov@ 72.0¢5h ago

15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp

Latest book event: YES DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $20.4K → $11.1K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h−$56

6h+$4.9K

24h+$33.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current100.0¢

VWAP 24h77.7¢▲ above by 22.2pp

VWAP 7d77.7¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$13.5K

90¢

$66

85¢

80¢

75¢

$78