UFC Fight Night: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Main Card)

● quote 94 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $220.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $405.7KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Main Card)
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection85Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:75 trades$55.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 97 min agoofficial metadata 93 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAbubakar Vagaev (YES)$48.2K@ 66¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$46.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$46.6K
6h
+$46.6K
tracked
$55.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$48.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: +21.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 94 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 97 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 93 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-26 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Abubakar Vagaev" if Abubakar Vagaev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Saygid Izagakhmaev at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr., scheduled for July 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Saygid Izagakhmaev" if Saygid Izagakhmaev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 8, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Abubakar Vagaev2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Abubakar Vagaev2h ago
Outcome checks pending
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Abubakar Vagaev@ 79.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Abubakar Vagaev@ 75.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $443 → $28 · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$46.6K
6h+$46.6K
24h+$46.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h68.1¢▲ above by 31.8pp
VWAP 7d68.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.2K
90¢
$524
85¢
$57
80¢
$2.6K
75¢
$1.2K
70¢
$113
65¢
$48.5K
60¢
$574
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAbubakar Vagaev (YES)$48.2K@ 66.1¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Abubakar Vagaev$48.2K
BUY VWAP 66.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.