Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

● quote 4 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $161.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $266.2KEvent: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
77.5¢
YES
22.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly76Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:26 trades$96.5K tracked19% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.2K·2 wallets·$1.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$26.4K@ 62¢·0x5291…d4b6

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.0K
6h
+$92.3K
tracked
$96.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$1.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 46

Since latest accumulation: +26.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 26.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-04 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, scheduled for July 28 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Atlanta Braves52m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Atlanta Braves52m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Atlanta Braves@ 52.0¢58m ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Atlanta Braves@ 52.0¢58m ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 7.5pp · near-book depth $85$10 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$2.0K
6h+$92.3K
24h+$92.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current77.5¢
VWAP 24h62.9¢▲ above by 14.6pp
VWAP 7d62.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$14
75¢
← now
$52
70¢
$0
65¢
$14.1K
60¢
$80.3K
55¢
$859
50¢
$1.2K
45¢
$32
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$26.4K@ 62.0¢0x5291…d4b6🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$11.5K@ 63.0¢0x5291…d4b6🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$24.6K@ 63.0¢0x5291…d4b6🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$14.1K@ 67.0¢0x26b4…b8a9🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$15.5K@ 62.0¢0x96e1…50aa🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5291…d4b6Atlanta Braves$62.5K
BUY VWAP 62.6¢·3 fills
0x96e1…50aaAtlanta Braves$15.5K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill
0x26b4…b8a9Atlanta Braves$14.1K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.