PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?

● quote just now
Politics→Closes: 2 daysLiquidity: $24.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $63.1KEvent: South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner
58.0¢
YES
42.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution71Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%
24h sample:13 trades$11.5K trackedsource coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 127 min agoofficial metadata 23s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$7.4K@ 36¢·0x4c8c…e36f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$4.8K
tracked
$11.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 127 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina. Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $43 → $24 · 14s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h−$4.8K
24h−$5.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.0¢
VWAP 24h65.8¢▼ below by 7.8pp
VWAP 7d66.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.9K
65¢
$4.4K
60¢
$8.0K
55¢
← now
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.3¢$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1¢$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$572.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.4¢$481.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1.5¢$321.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.8¢$253.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$250.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0.4¢$178.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.