Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers

● quote 88 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $794.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $737.2KEvent: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:96 trades$109.1K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 133 min agoofficial metadata 88 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $29.7K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$29.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDetroit Tigers (NO)$28.4K@ 64¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$17.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$17.5K
6h
−$9.9K
tracked
$109.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$29.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 88 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 133 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 88 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-05 17:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for July 29 at 1:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 8.8pp · near-book depth $14$13 · 7s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$17.5K
6h$9.9K
24h$9.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h48.4¢▲ above by 51.5pp
VWAP 7d48.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$18.9K
90¢
$0
85¢
$200
80¢
$433
75¢
$69
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$244
55¢
$16
50¢
$20
45¢
$357
40¢
$29.6K
35¢
$48.0K
30¢
$10.7K
25¢
$0
20¢
$58
15¢
$0
10¢
$1
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLBaltimore Orioles (YES)$17.1K@ 99.9¢0x26b4…b8a9🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (NO)$10.0K@ 66.3¢0xa2a0…b16b🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles (YES)$12.6K@ 40.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles (YES)$16.3K@ 40.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles (YES)$19.5K@ 36.0¢0xd696…8a49🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (NO)$28.4K@ 64.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xifutloong3Baltimore Orioles$28.9K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·2 fills
0x3dfb…abafDetroit Tigers$28.4K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
0xd696…8a49Baltimore Orioles$19.5K
BUY VWAP 36.0¢·1 fill
0xa2a0…b16bDetroit Tigers$10.0K
BUY VWAP 66.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.