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Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?

Politics→Closes: about 21 hoursLiquidity: $35.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $332.3KEvent: Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
3.6¢
YES
96.4¢
NO
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:94 trades$132.4K trackedsource coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 25s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $753 net·4 wallets·$2.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$9.0K@ 68¢·aenews2

Decision read paused

Market status is DISPUTED. No executable setup is shown until trading is open again.

DISPUTED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
DISPUTED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-24 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. A quote post will only qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 6.7pp · near-book depth $24 → $190 · 58s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market disputed · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.disputed

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $2.0K
6hNO · $111.3K
24hNO · $109.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.6¢
VWAP 24h11.0¢▼ below by 7.4pp
VWAP 7d11.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.7K
45¢
$3.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$9.6K
25¢
$19.8K
20¢
$2.7K
15¢
$3.9K
10¢
$0
5¢
$1.4K
0¢
← now
$86.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

MMementoNo$32.4K
BUY VWAP 99.6¢·7 fills
yen4uNo$15.1K
BUY VWAP 96.4¢·10 fills
yougotmeNo$13.4K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·4 fills
0x64c2…b27dNo$10.5K
BUY VWAP 93.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.