Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

● quote 1 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $449.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $383.9KEvent: Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets95Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:121 trades$20.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $433·4 wallets·$455 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew York Mets (NO)$11.9K@ 48¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.7K
6h
−$11.6K
tracked
$20.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$433 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Since latest position change: -47.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 17:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and New York Mets, scheduled for August 2 at 1:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9851…c31d2 linked markets · $13 gross
0x6522…3a5a2 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY New York Mets@ 48.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.3pp · near-book depth $4$35 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.7K
6h$11.6K
24h$11.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h57.1¢▲ above by 42.8pp
VWAP 7d57.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$164
90¢
$89
85¢
$1.0K
80¢
$1.6K
75¢
$22
70¢
$224
65¢
$586
60¢
$958
55¢
$0
50¢
$13.3K
45¢
$2.3K
40¢
$5
35¢
$22
30¢
$14
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNew York Mets (NO)$11.9K@ 48.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1New York Mets$11.9K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.