Dota 2: REKONIX vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs

● quote 18 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $461.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $536.1KEvent: Dota 2: REKONIX vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection51Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:120 trades$21.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 23 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYakult Brothers (NO)$10.2K@ 100¢·0xc0f5…3d04

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$10.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.7K
6h
+$13.7K
tracked
$21.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$1.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 18 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 26 minutes old.
  • Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 20:55 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between REKONIX and Yakult Brothers in the Games of the Future Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 2 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "REKONIX" if REKONIX win the match against Yakult Brothers. This market will resolve to "Yakult Brothers" if Yakult Brothers win the match against REKONIX. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 4h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $20.1K gross
0x4aec…4ce93 linked markets · $6.3K gross
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $3.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 3.3pp · near-book depth $5.3K$101 · 13s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$10.7K
6h+$13.7K
24h+$13.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h26.6¢▼ below by 26.5pp
VWAP 7d26.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$2.1K
85¢
$58
80¢
$18
75¢
$213
70¢
$57
65¢
$15
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.8K
50¢
$296
45¢
$753
40¢
$875
35¢
$2.5K
30¢
$47
25¢
$1.9K
20¢
$90
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$10.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLYakult Brothers (NO)$10.2K@ 99.9¢0xc0f5…3d04🐋27 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.