Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies

● quote 44 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $12.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $349.8KEvent: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies
98.5¢
YES
1.6¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly37Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:74 trades$41.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 49 min agoofficial metadata 45 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $17.5K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$17.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$20.0K@ 60¢·0xf668…5c69

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$51
6h
+$3.4K
tracked
$41.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$17.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -40.4pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 44 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 49 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 45 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 19:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies, scheduled for August 5 at 3:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This market will resolve to "Colorado Rockies" if the Colorado Rockies win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xb4bf…60f82 linked markets · $102 gross
0x212b…0ba52 linked markets · $100 gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $9 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Colorado Rockies@ 42.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 59.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $12$128 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$51
6h+$3.4K
24h+$3.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current98.5¢
VWAP 24h60.1¢▲ above by 38.4pp
VWAP 7d60.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$332
90¢
$0
85¢
$123
80¢
$195
75¢
$93
70¢
$286
65¢
$5
60¢
$20.0K
55¢
$20.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYColorado Rockies (NO)$17.5K@ 41.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$20.0K@ 60.0¢0xf668…5c69🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf668…5c69Tampa Bay Rays$20.0K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
Talvez10Colorado Rockies$17.5K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.