Will NEC win on 2026-08-04?
Decision read
Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.
2 verified profitable wallets: +$20 YES-equivalent over 7d.
Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.
Data confidence 65% · priority 0
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
- •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
- •Executable quote is 121 minutes old.
- •Observed tape is 142 minutes old.
- •Official market metadata is 122 minutes old.
Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.
Resolution & market truth
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
Read full resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 4, 2026 If NEC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Evidence receipts
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Price History
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.YES-equivalent VWAP
Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.Largest holders
YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
Related Markets · same event first, then category
Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.