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Will Dante Moore win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?

● quote 54s ago
Sports→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $1.2KOfficial 24h Vol: —Event: NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner
3.5¢
YES
96.5¢
NO
5.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution38Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:1 trades$17.3K tracked100% 🐋source coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 380 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$17.3K@ 97¢·Hyperlong

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$17.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
5.1¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 380 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 5.1¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-27 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If the ceremony is postponed after December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been announced within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Heisman Trophy, awarded to the most outstanding player in college football, with the winner announced at the Heisman ceremony currently scheduled for December 12, 2026. If the ceremony is postponed after December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been announced within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple players are declared co-winners, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Heisman Trophy Trust (https://www.heisman.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $17.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.5¢
VWAP 24h3.5¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d3.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$17.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$17.3K@ 96.5¢
Hyperlong0x014c…820c
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HyperlongNo$17.3K
BUY VWAP 96.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.