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Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $112.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $80.9KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

18.5¢
Casper Ruud
81.5¢
Carlos Alcaraz
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets64Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:24 trades$31.9K trackedsource coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 50s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Carlos Alcaraz · $7.7K net·3 wallets·$12.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlos Alcaraz$8.3K@ 82¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Carlos Alcaraz SETUP
What the tape says

Carlos Alcaraz pressure: $2.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.6K
6h
−$6.1K
tracked
$31.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: Carlos Alcaraz · $7.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 60

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Carlos Alcaraz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-14 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Casper Ruud. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Casper Ruud; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $2.6K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $6.1K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $20.0K

Casper Ruud price VWAP

Volume-weighted Casper Ruud price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Casper Ruud probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current18.5¢
VWAP 24h18.15¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d18.15¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Casper Ruud price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$2.4K
15¢
← now
$29.4K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Ruud vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 21.5
49.5¢$6.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Casper Ruud (+1.5)
59.5¢$470priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 22.5
41.0¢$73priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz
25.5¢$17priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Casper Ruud vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
32.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-4.5) vs Casper Ruud (+4.5)
42.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz
24.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 23.5
37.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.