National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

● quote 75 min ago
GeopoliticsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $475.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $175.8KEvent: National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:104 trades$39.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 22%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 104 min agoofficial metadata 68 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $13.7K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$13.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$14.8K@ 75¢·0xecc5…5fde

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$825
6h
−$9.3K
tracked
$39.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$13.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 75 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 104 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 68 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-10 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Duncan Chan and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Duncan Chan' if Duncan Chan advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Duncan Chan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $5$41.4K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$825
6h$9.3K
24h$24.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h37.8¢▼ below by 37.8pp
VWAP 7d37.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$249
80¢
$4
75¢
$2.7K
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.0K
60¢
$0
55¢
$1
50¢
$12
45¢
$11.5K
40¢
$378
35¢
$3.2K
30¢
$603
25¢
$18.6K
20¢
$303
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$829
0¢
← now
$29

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$11.3K@ 52.0¢
sbimbg0xf519…906b
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$14.8K@ 74.7¢0xecc5…5fde🐋about 12 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18.5¢$976.9Kpriority40Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
40.4¢$441.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1¢$421.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
93.0¢$288.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
13.5¢$225.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
6.5¢$173.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
83.0¢$136.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
82.0¢$135.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xecc5…5fdeThiago Agustin Tirante$14.8K
BUY VWAP 74.7¢·1 fill
sbimbgThiago Agustin Tirante$11.3K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.