Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs LNG Esports (+1.5)

● quote 69 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $264.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $178.1KEvent: LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly8Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets32Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:50 trades$32.9K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 91 min agoofficial metadata 69 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLNG Esports (NO)$15.5K@ 38¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$76
6h
−$10.3K
tracked
$32.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$659 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 69 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 91 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 69 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Invictus Gaming and LNG Esports in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for August 9 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming wins 2 or more games than LNG Esports in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "LNG Esports". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9e3e…f8824 linked markets · $5.8K gross
0xf030…12e22 linked markets · $4.0K gross
0xcae6…4f852 linked markets · $2.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY LNG Esports@ 37.0¢15h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +2.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $86$118 · 7s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$76
6h$10.3K
24h$21.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h74.2¢▲ above by 25.7pp
VWAP 7d74.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$10.7K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$17
70¢
$128
65¢
$0
60¢
$22.0K
55¢
$3
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLInvictus Gaming (YES)$10.6K@ 99.9¢0x2140…0e12🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYLNG Esports (NO)$15.5K@ 38.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋about 16 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111LNG Esports$15.5K
BUY VWAP 38.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.